Balancing Growing Global Bioenergy Resource Demands - Brazil’s Biomass Potential and the Availability of Resource for Trade

摘要

Based on the general acceptance that greenhouse gases from biomass are carbon-neutral, bioenergy pathways are being increasingly included in many countries renewable energy and emission reduction strategies. Thus biomass demand is rising fast with several regions forecast to encounter major resource stresses over the coming decades. Many bioenergy strategies relying on future imported resource to balance their bioenergy resource demands. Applying a Biomass Resource Model to evaluate and forecast the types and potential availability of different categories of biomass resources from Brazil – a case study of a country with extensive biomass resources and export potential. This research evaluates Brazil’s biomass potential to 2030, and analyses the levels of resource that may be available to export. The research finds that Brazil has extensive biomass resources that are potentially sufficient to both balance Brazilian total primary energy demand by 2030 and for Brazil to increasingly become a major exporter of resource for energy end uses. The paper also discusses the potential impact for global biomass trade, if countries such as Brazil were to adopt energy strategies that resulted in greater domestic use of their available biomass. The research’s analysis shows that if the Brazilian Government were to adopt strategies to utilise a greater proportion of its renewable resource for domestic energy, Brazil could export up to >25.8% less biomass by 2030 compared to forecast export levels based on Brazil’s current policy framework.